Being outside the Bubble

Firstly, Happy Monday.

Over the past week I’ve been reading and hearing a lot of material on this Quantitative Easing by Bernanke etc. How his talk was interpreted was a mess so the Fed’s president spoke to clarify things on how QE would be approached, blah blah blah. And more about how Bernanke was trying to take some of the juice out of the Equity market so it wouldn’t take off without the economy.

Now, 2-3 weeks later, many see exactly what many feared. With the Fed acting the way it is with it’s policies, analysts have found a trend in the last few bubbles. The attached picture explains it perfectly. Whenever the Fed has kept its rates lower than the Nominal GDP, there’s been a bubble. And yes, that is exactly the position we are in now. Image

Many now fear that this bubble whether seen or unseen will either happen now because it has been noticed, thus putting investor confidence in the toilet or will be triggered in a more financial fashion, rather than the Red Scare. However, it’s very interesting. Would now be a great time to buy gold? Markets have been somewhat bullish, the fear of a bubble is setting in unless the Fed changes something, and gold is at record lows.So? Buy gold? I mean, if I could, I would, at least a sufficient amount to maybe collateralize what I have invested in equities? Or go all in and become a millionaire if things go my way. But then again isnt that the whole game?

 

Who knows, just some food for thought. Enjoy your July 4th’s.

 

Cheers.

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Globalization Theory

Buon Giorno.

Recently got out of the daily 9AM trade floor meeting. I was so tempted to bring up this little theory that I’ve developed over the past couple months; patents pending. However, in a room full of geniuses, I didn’t say anything in-case someone found it utterly stupid for “the intern” to put his two cents in, especially if my little idea was already known.

 

However, during the last couple weeks of school, on April 29th. I went to a talk at Brown University that involved a couple former Latin American Presidents. One was Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León, a Mexican economist and former president of Mexico from December 1, 1994 to November 30, 2000.

Approximately a month before, I had given a presentation on the reality of Brazil as an emerging market among the BRICs and if it was actually leading the BRICs, aka fulfilling the economic prophecies. My findings led me to an article that helped me formulate my presentation. It, among other sources, pointed out that Brazil was underperforming and it’s as simple as that. It was not leading the BRICs and had under-preformed during the last few quarters.

So the question is, why? Well, my theory or as I call it, phenomenon, is that of globalization’s impact on emerging markets. The world is no longer flat. We know in a matter of seconds what is going on with the Nikkei over in Asia and milliseconds whats going on with the FTSE in London. Between the critics, the analysts, the media and speed that information travels today every move is speculated and known instantly. The connectivity is truly unbelievable between markets. With this integration of markets, an emerging economy is killed by it’s own hype. The analysts, speculators and media kill the potential of these emerging economies. Former President Zedillo coined the concept perfectly during his talk, labeling this mentality as a form of complacency. He related it to Mexico’s potential and arguing that outlets and economists (WSJ, Bloomberg, FinancialTimes, etc) tell the world that Mexico and the BRICs are going to be growing economies and have endless potential, so the country grows a little and figures because everyone in the financial world is saying they’re going to be good, that there’s nothing to do but sit back and let it happen. This is the complacency factor and phenomenon that globalization has caused and that the world economies have never seen. Never in our history have markets been so connected and information been so readily available; therefore causing this hype. I mean, I think it’s rather simple.

Now to relate this back to the meeting this morning, the fact that emerging markets currencies all haven’t been returning as much as people have hoped for other than the MXN Peso was brought up and questioned. Other, all very plausible factors were also thrown into discussion but I was surprised nobody had addressed anything close to my idea and it left me wondering if it would be relevant or worthy of consideration. Even if so, I don’t think there would be a way to quantify it’s (globalization/complacency theory) impact, which poses a problem were it to be taken into account.

 

Nonetheless, I would be very interested to see if anyone talks about this or if this becomes a big deal as markets integrate more and more.

 

Thoughts?

 

Arrivaderci.

 

Silver Linings Playbook

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Just finished watching this movie. First half hour was so bizarre. I was like damn this dude is out of his tree and so is his Dad. Mom seems to be the only normal one. 

Jennifer Lawrence is amazing in this. Love Jennifer Lawrence in the first place but loved her part in this. It was like a chick flick with an honest comedic side. I loved the quick honest dialogue. I wish I could talk like that to everyone. Honest, blunt, no filter. It would make life so much easier.

I wouldn’t mind running into Jennifer Lawrence either. But anywho, two thumbs up, would definitely watch it again. So good I had to write about it. Brad & Jen killed it. Amen.

 

Arrivaderci

Tomatoes & Onions

A little piece of work I wrote senior year of high school for English Lang & Comp. AP.

 

 I am a tomato, and my problem is everyone else is an onion. I discovered this from observing the grown-ups when I was young. Whenever we went out to a restaurant or to the movies, I would notice things about their behavior around others. Grown-ups are so different, but oddly enough, they all seem to act the same way. Adults are onions, protected by a layer of skin so that no one could see who they really were. And I was an infant tomato, as fragile and new to the world as could be. The slightest touch left an imprint on my mind, whether it was an insinuation or an insult. So I started thinking about this situation.

            We are all born tomatoes. By age eleven, the change to onion-hood is already underway. That vibrant red skin starts to fade and thicken and lose its sweetness, turning into a sour, hard coating. The whole process is very subtle, and it is seldom thought about.  It begins with authority figures, any of the major influences in a child’s life: parents, friends, school, and television. In order to feel accepted by these figures, children have to adapt to certain rules. Girls try to be thin. Guys try to impress girls. Everyone tries to get the right answer at school. And if they fail to meet any of these criteria, they get embarrassed. This is the new  “red onion” phase, halfway between tomato-hood and onion-hood.

            However, soon enough, “kids” begin inventing ways to escape criticism. The girls can choose not to eat or they can pretend that they do not care.  The “guys” can choose to imitate someone famous or they can pretend that they hate girls. The students who usually get the right answers at school find ways to seem like they always get the right answers, and the “kids” who rarely get the right answers find ways to show that they do not care. This is the skin of the onion developing. And by the beginning of high school, the mature onion has formed. With time, its skin grows thicker. As that skin grows thicker the people lose themselves along the way. They lose their sense of authenticity and become what the world molds them to be, no longer “Made in USA”. Of course, there are some people that even realize that they are onions, but are hesitant to peel their skin for fear of losing their sense of security.

            Occasionally, I will catch myself onionizing, especially if something really bothers me. Beginning of my high school freshman year, I was scared that I would not make any friends so I convinced myself I was the loner type. Since I was going to a high school where none of my friends were going, I knew there was no way I would find others to somehow replace my old friends. For months, I refused to meet anybody because I had already decided that I would not get along with any new friend.  I felt awful, until I realized I had abandoned being a tomato. I could not avoid confronting it any longer. I knew that my fear was going to leave a bruise, but that was fine because it was better than covering up my problem. Once I opened up, I had an easier time meeting people than I would have ever imagined. That is the wonder of tomatoes.  “Tomatoes” never try to hide who we are or how we think and never take the easy way out.

            College a mix of tomatoes and onions, where one learns to question the status quo, seems like it would be the perfect place for a tomato living in an onion’s world. Yet I recognize that the challenging time will be to continue being a tomato– continue to discover. I will be confronting new ideas, new situations, along with new fears, and will have to assimilate these experiences without changing the fabric of my mind. I will have to keep my vision of the world fresh and open, and not succumb to the hardening of established ideas, or onionizing, which I see happening around me all the time.

            In the end, it is possible that tomatoes and onions do have something in common: a comfort in the usual way of doing things, a resistance towards change. The change in these next four years will be a novelty for me, as I explore new intellectual realms as my mind continues to mature — although I will never stop being a tomato, I hope that college will at least help me to ripen a bit.

 

Unfortunately it did not make the cut for my college essay in my applications.

As we grow up, …

As we grow up, we learn that even the one person that wasn’t supposed to ever let us down, probably will. You’ll have your heart broken and you’ll break others’ hearts. You’ll fight with your best friend or maybe even fall in love with them, and you’ll cry because time is flying by. So take too many pictures, laugh too much, forgive freely, and love like you’ve never been hurt. Life comes with no guarantees, no time outs, no second chances. you just have to live life to the fullest, tell someone what they mean to you and tell someone off, speak out, dance in the pouring rain, hold someone’s hand, comfort a friend, fall asleep watching the sun come up, stay up late, be a flirt, and smile until your face hurts. Don’t be afraid to take chances or fall in love and most of all, live in the moment because every second you spend angry or upset is a second of happiness you can never get back.

Stages of Life

Life’s a book bitch broad beach Journey.

It sucks, i don’t know of anyone who won’t agree to that at one point or another.

I got friends going through shit I’ve gone thru, legitimately. Hearing their stresses and worries, I’m tempted to put my 2 cents in. Those 2 cents that could make a hell of a difference, maybe like those last two cents you needed to make a dollar at the register. If someone had given them to you or when they did, if you had kept em. You’d be all set. But ya didn’t if nobody ever bothered.

I don’t refrain because I don’t care. I refrain because I guess, if you try and take that hope or dream that their fighting for or going through away, then what if you were wrong and it could’ve worked. What if just because it didn’t work in your experience it won’t with another’s? If you haven’t caught on by now I’m more specifically talking about women but I could apply it to a few others.

I’ve fucked up, had people fuck up with me and think I’m fucking up right now. But I don’t know and won’t know unless the risk is taken. The biggest worry is taking the risk and it not paying off because the other end isn’t there or your at a much farther point.

And when it rains, it fuckin pours. I’ve seen the strongest people in my life reduced to their knees. God and life has no mercy for the good bad ugly or blessed. Karma or no karma shit happens. And there’s no looking back and harping on it, do that when you’re alone with a good friend and shitfaced cus nobody else wants to hear or deal with your shit.

The only thing that matters is what you make of your future.

You can’t make your past, at least there’s no technology for that yet.

So until then use your bootstraps and keep movin, because time waits for no man.

I find myself in a weird stage in life. With so much on my plate. With things I want now, things I want then. Things I’m dealing with, things that burden me, things ive had to let go of, things I regret, and goals.

As someone who thought they knew what love was. I’ve been regretfully mistaken. It’s interesting because people that grow on you, is not love. Physical attraction is not love. There are many more things that are not love than those that are. So when does one know? No goddamn clue because I thought I did. So what does one do now? Keep walking until he walks into it or trips on it. Keep walking down that sidewalk or path. Who knows?

Lastly, I really wish I could be more honest and upfront with myself. For example if I like you or if I want to punch you in the throat for how much I hate you, I wish I could just tell you and you could be honest back and we could go from there. I feel like what people say is “consideration” or being “nice” is just you being a pussy. Because if someone comes up to you unprovoked and just says how they feel, they don’t want the run around they want the truth, no bullshit. But what stops me and I am afraid of, is the authenticity of the other persons response. And what I hate more is encrypted language and screwing around. It sucks and gets nothing accomplished.

Call it wisdom. Call it complaining. Call it terrible. Call it what you like but nobody forced you to read.

Note: All writers draw inspiration from their experiences so yes this in twitter language is like “sub-writing.”

Ta ta for now & buona notte.

10/4

The $50 Lesson

Educate yourselves.

 

I recently asked my friend’s daughter what she wanted to be when she grows
up. She said she wanted to be President some day. Both of her parents,
liberal Democrats, were standing there, so I asked her, “If you were
President what would be the first thing you would do?”

She replied!, “I’d give food and houses to all the homeless people.” Her
parents beamed.

“Wow…what a worthy goal.” I told her, “But you don’t have to wait until
you’re President to do that. You can come over to my house and mow the lawn,
pull weeds, and sweep my floors, and I’ll pay you $50. Then I’ll take you
over to the grocery store where the homeless guy hangs out, and you can give
him the $50 to use toward food and a new house.”

She thought that over for a few seconds, then she looked me straight in the
eye and asked, “Why doesn’t the homeless guy come over and do the work, and
you can just pay him the $50?”

I said, “Welcome to the Republican Party.”