The Fed. Stocks & Bonds

Buon Pomeriggio.

I recently read this article on bonds and stocks by Michael A. Gayed on MarketWatch.com and found it pretty damn interesting.
Link : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-risk-to-stocks-2013-05-29

A lot of what I’m about to say is going to be reiterating his thoughts, but I though I’d share them with you/ summarize to make it a little bit easier in lay man’s terms.

 

So this smart guy knows that when bond yields go up, stocks start hurtin’. His point is that after last week, after Bernanke’s talk about the Fed’s position and the volatility in Japan this recent confidence and stability is only an illusion. I like the way he’s looking at what the Fed is doing. Gayed stresses that the Fed is simple “confusing and conquering.” By this he means, say something that can be interpreted 100 different ways, say something confident but not too confident, but nonetheless whatever you do don’t get excited.

Now why would he and the Fed do this? The Fed is worried that stocks are gonna start taking off and forgetting about the still struggling economy. By sending mixed messages, the Fed is taking some of the umph out of the somewhat rising stocks. Gayed puts it perfectly saying “they may be able to stop the advance in U.S. averages from getting too far ahead of itself.”

Additionally Gayed also adds that the Fed should really cut down on talks about tapering if they don’t want to deflate the momentum the housing market has recently experienced over the last few quarters.

The position Gayed takes on this is a position I like. Why else would the Fed come out like this? I mean, I’d like to think they aren’t just a bunch of confusing fools and actually have a reasoning for their ways. Additionally, this stock and bond relationship is highlighted perfectly in reference to whats going on now. Preferably, I’d obviously like to see a nice balance, in tandem with the economy. But I think it’s smart that the Fed is doing what their doing so that the market doesn’t trip on its shoelaces once people realize the economy isn’t so great.

 

Enjoy the rest of your day!

 

Arrivaderci.

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Globalization Theory

Buon Giorno.

Recently got out of the daily 9AM trade floor meeting. I was so tempted to bring up this little theory that I’ve developed over the past couple months; patents pending. However, in a room full of geniuses, I didn’t say anything in-case someone found it utterly stupid for “the intern” to put his two cents in, especially if my little idea was already known.

 

However, during the last couple weeks of school, on April 29th. I went to a talk at Brown University that involved a couple former Latin American Presidents. One was Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León, a Mexican economist and former president of Mexico from December 1, 1994 to November 30, 2000.

Approximately a month before, I had given a presentation on the reality of Brazil as an emerging market among the BRICs and if it was actually leading the BRICs, aka fulfilling the economic prophecies. My findings led me to an article that helped me formulate my presentation. It, among other sources, pointed out that Brazil was underperforming and it’s as simple as that. It was not leading the BRICs and had under-preformed during the last few quarters.

So the question is, why? Well, my theory or as I call it, phenomenon, is that of globalization’s impact on emerging markets. The world is no longer flat. We know in a matter of seconds what is going on with the Nikkei over in Asia and milliseconds whats going on with the FTSE in London. Between the critics, the analysts, the media and speed that information travels today every move is speculated and known instantly. The connectivity is truly unbelievable between markets. With this integration of markets, an emerging economy is killed by it’s own hype. The analysts, speculators and media kill the potential of these emerging economies. Former President Zedillo coined the concept perfectly during his talk, labeling this mentality as a form of complacency. He related it to Mexico’s potential and arguing that outlets and economists (WSJ, Bloomberg, FinancialTimes, etc) tell the world that Mexico and the BRICs are going to be growing economies and have endless potential, so the country grows a little and figures because everyone in the financial world is saying they’re going to be good, that there’s nothing to do but sit back and let it happen. This is the complacency factor and phenomenon that globalization has caused and that the world economies have never seen. Never in our history have markets been so connected and information been so readily available; therefore causing this hype. I mean, I think it’s rather simple.

Now to relate this back to the meeting this morning, the fact that emerging markets currencies all haven’t been returning as much as people have hoped for other than the MXN Peso was brought up and questioned. Other, all very plausible factors were also thrown into discussion but I was surprised nobody had addressed anything close to my idea and it left me wondering if it would be relevant or worthy of consideration. Even if so, I don’t think there would be a way to quantify it’s (globalization/complacency theory) impact, which poses a problem were it to be taken into account.

 

Nonetheless, I would be very interested to see if anyone talks about this or if this becomes a big deal as markets integrate more and more.

 

Thoughts?

 

Arrivaderci.

 

Silver Linings Playbook

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Just finished watching this movie. First half hour was so bizarre. I was like damn this dude is out of his tree and so is his Dad. Mom seems to be the only normal one. 

Jennifer Lawrence is amazing in this. Love Jennifer Lawrence in the first place but loved her part in this. It was like a chick flick with an honest comedic side. I loved the quick honest dialogue. I wish I could talk like that to everyone. Honest, blunt, no filter. It would make life so much easier.

I wouldn’t mind running into Jennifer Lawrence either. But anywho, two thumbs up, would definitely watch it again. So good I had to write about it. Brad & Jen killed it. Amen.

 

Arrivaderci